Atomic World Championship #1: Initial Preview

Introduction

As we all know, the AWC is about to start, and the first matches will be played to decide the final 64. The hype in the community is high. So, it's a good time to restart my blog, just to give a quick introduction to the AWC this year.

New In AWC 2025

For those who played a lot of AWCs, there are quite a few changes in the AWC 2025.
Our beloved @Chronatog stepped down from the role of AWC tournament director, and the new director is @HowlinD. Therefore, the rules are also changed. Some rule changes might be controversial but eventually they are accepted by the community.
Firstly, the entrance requirements are more strict, with more games needed, a lowest rating threshold, and accounts need to specify their main account. These might be controversial but it's necessary to minimize the drama of forfeiting/cheating.
Secondly, the time control is changed to 3+1. The time control was 3+2 before 2023 and was 3+0 in 2024. There were a lot of flagging last year so TD decided to try a new time control.
Thirdly, there will be no auto forfeit if one player plays one more white game in a match and refuse to play more to balance the colours. This rule caused drama in 2023 and 2024 and is therefore removed.
Lastly, the seeding formula is reworked. It's even more complicated than last time... And as we will see, it will cause a few scams in the pairings.

Structure

The AWC will be a single elimination knockout tournament until top 16, and after that it will be a double elimination tournament. The Losers' bracket winner will need to win two matches to defeat the Winners' bracket winner, a task which hasn't been completed in history. But we will see what happens this year.
The first matches played will be the qualification rounds, just like the Champions League. I myself will play in it and I hope there will be some exciting matches!

Preview of the Qualifying Rounds

There are 26 players fighting for 8 spots. The bracket is here: https://challonge.com/2025awctop64qualifier

Group A: Divagueur, CyberShredder, SoftBerserkRoyalty
This group is fairly even matched according to rating, it's hard to predict who will win, but Divagueur has the advantage of only having to play once. CyberShredder might be busy preparing for RKWC.
Prediction: Divagueur

Group B: szura, tantuini33, OllieParker
Szura is a very experienced player and is by far the favourite here. However, OllieParker pulling of an upset would be quite a story.
Prediction: szura

Group C: Pietroand007, joe121, mrsdgm
Pietroand007 is a slight favourite in this group, but joe121 is not that far behind. This will be another hard to decide group, but again, Pietroand007 has the advantage of only having to play once.
Prediction: Pietroand007

Group D: Alphadream, miller2345, EITHANTHECURSEDLEGEN
Again a very even matched group, all players have a decent chance. But alphadream with the highest current rating and the advantage to play only once should make them the favourite.
Prediction: Alphadream

Group E: SAC_Chess_Champions, GreatSteelPanda, cFlour
Well, this is the group of death. This is the reason why the seeding system sometimes cause scams: SAC is rated 2100 and can be top 40 in the list by current rating. But a bad performance rating means SAC has to play qualification rounds... This also means tougher first round opposition for our poor 4th seed, who is coincidentally the newly joined @vlad_00. I guess that's what you get for joining late. Also, cFlour and GSP are also rated pretty high in the qualification rounds, they can probably have a great chance in Group A through D, but they got this dreaded group. But again, nothing is impossible and they are not doomed.
Prediction: SAC_Chess_Champions

Group F: squiggliey, R2300, Delulululu
Squiggliey and R2300 are fairly evenly matched. R2300 is actually the favourite since squiggliey might be a bit rusty, but R2300, known as Avi, is busy preparing for RKWC. But you know, there gotta be some drama, so I'm going for the big upset here. Because you know, there will always be one upset...
Prediction: Delulululu

Group G: Ericahhhhhhh, huangyuting2377, FrogAndCranberries, ajcortez
Well, FrogAndCranberries can certainly cause me some trouble, and knowing me, you won't consider me a big favourite. However, if I do lose, it'll be very disappointing for me. What a patzer!
Prediction: Ericahhhhhhh (we need to have confidence)

Group H: Marcello01785, therealkdnagrani, Ulisse_Dusci, Happy_Face_39
Marcello01785 is the clear favourite here, and is also the most experienced player in the group. I'd be surprised if Marcello fails to qualify.
Prediction: Marcello01785

Entrants Overview

Now that we've covered the lower seeded players and possible dark horses, we can talk about something more people will be interested in — some of the favourites of AWC, and the main bracket.

Last year's runner-up @NeverOfZero is the biggest favourite, with the highest peak rating and the highest current rating. Vlad notably won AWC after finishing 2nd, so maybe it's NoZ's year. However, he will face fierce competition from the field.
@chrisrapid as the 2nd seed is a very solid player, and often underestimated by the community.
The reigning champion @Natso and @vlad_00 are also title challengers, although vlad might be rusty. Can Natso defend the title and become the 2nd player to achieve consecutive AWC wins?
@MaxwellsSilvrHammer is the only 2500+ rated player other than NoZ and will have a decent chance. @Ihatespammers also known as TRK is also looking for some AWC glory, but needs to avoid rage closing his account.
@Opabinia is an old-timer (sadly Hysterix didn't join) returning to the AWC. @RandoomPlayer, @Wolfram_EP, @JakeStateFarm and @Rechesster are also well-known names, they also have some winning chances. There are also outside chances for @TAIsThuban, @Maracker, @JudeBaeTorrens, @digvijay_sunil, and many slightly lower seeded players. If I didn't mention your name, it's just omitted because I don't want to make this paragraph too long. Actually, based on simple mathematics, everyone has some chance to win!
Almost all established top players joined AWC this year, so we are in for a treat!

Champion Prediction

I will not do a complete prediction because it's still early stages, but we can still see the main pairings.
I'll be surprised if any of the top 11 miss the double elimination round, except maybe vlad. 12-21 seeds are more competitive and anything can happen. And then NoZ's path might be slightly easier than Natso/chris' path.
Since predicting a favourite to win would be boring, I will predict someone with some decent chances but often overlooked. That player is @Ihatespammers. @Ihatespammers has an unbelievable 10-2 record against the defending champion Natso who is coincidentally in his bracket. If they face each other, Natso might get into trouble. Meanwhile chrisrapid will have a tough match against Opabinia, and anything can happen in the top 4. So far I haven't seen anyone predicting Ihatespammers to win, so I will. After all, spammers ruined the fun of atomic chess and we all hate spammers! (Well, don't spam XD)

Trivia

• This is the 10th edition of AWC on lichess. The previous winners include GM @Arka50 (3 times), @tipau, @onubense, @fast-tsunami, CM @sutcunuri, @vlad_00 and most recently @Natso. Notice that except the GOAT Arka, no one has won it more than once.
• Atomic WC is called AWC and Antichess WC is called ACWC. Don't get confused!
• There were forfeits and cheating scandals every year since 2021. I hope things can change this year.
• I will be the Women's Atomic Champion — since there doesn't seem to be anyone else joining!

Special Thanks

Special thanks to the TD @HowlinD, who provided me with comments and suggestions and offered to help me in my later blogs.
Also, special thanks to an anonymous friend who also helped me in this blog.

World Championship is a stage
we can all show ourselves on.
If you can't control your rage,
please google en passant.
Atomic chess can be amusing,
and messy when times get low.
But don't be upset after losing,
let's just enjoy the show!