King's Gambit vs. Queen's Gambit: A Statistical Breakdown by Elo

Hello,

I was surprised by how potent the Queen's Gambit is across all levels, even though it's a very popular opening. The King's Gambit, on the other hand, showed a more curious story: its effectiveness is low at beginner Elos, peaks for intermediate players, and then drops off at higher levels.

My theory is that you need a certain level of tactical proficiency to succeed with the KG's attack, which explains its underperformance at the bottom. Its peak efficiency is likely in the mid-Elo range, where players are good enough to manage the attack, but opponents are less likely to know a precise refutation.

Note: I looked a bit deeper into the Queen's Gambit and noticed that the accepted variation has an insane performance score. I think it might be the biggest statistical discrepancy I've seen so far on a common line by move 4.

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How to Read the Graphs:

• Expected Elo Gain / 100 Games: The expected rating point change from playing this line 100 times. Positive is good for White.
• Average White Elo Gain: A baseline showing White's average performance from move 1.
• Reachability %: Your chance to get this opening on the board if you try (as White).
• Popularity %: How often this opening is seen in all games.
• Theory Advantage: Reachability / Popularity. A measure of surprise value and preparation efficiency.

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What do you think?

I'd love your feedback on a few things:

1. Are the charts easy to understand? What could be improved?
2. Would you use a website with these kinds of interactive stats? What features would you like?
3. What openings you'd want to see compared?
4. Are the opening logos a good or bad idea?

This is an open-source project, and all contributions (code or feedback) are welcome! You can find the code and contribute here:
https://github.com/RemiFabre/WickedLines

Best,