2025 Women's World Chess Championship Preview: GM Ju Wenjun vs. GM Tan Zhongyi

Lichess is providing a live stream for every day of the Women's World Championship. Make sure to tune in to our Twitch or YouTube channels for live stream coverage with our hosts GM Toms Kantāns and WIM Jesse February, joined by a rotating panel of guests, starting from 07:00 UTC on Thursday, April 3.

Additionally, we will cover every game in our blog, including annotations by WIM Silvia Raluca Sgircea for games 1-6 and WGM Petra Papp for games 7-12.

Lichess has also run player profiles on GM Ju Wenjun and GM Tan Zhongyi ahead of the match.

Schedule

Some History

Similar to the Open or Absolute Chess World Champion title, the Women's Chess World Champion title is a prestigious title and connects its bearer to a long and impressive tradition dating back to 1927. One can read more about historical title matches on our Lichess World Champions page. There have been 17 Women's World Champions, with some winning the title multiple times; included among these 17 is the 16th World Champion, the challenger, GM Tan Zhongyi, and the reigning Women's World Champion, GM Ju Wenjun.

More History

Overall, GM Ju Wenjun's 2024 did not change the status quo too much — it was neither amazing nor terrible. She started off the year decently with a fine performance in the Tata Steel Masters 2024, where she tested her mettle against the world's best and won a brilliant game against GM Alireza FIrouzja, which we noted in our Ju Wenjun profile. A sixth place finish in TePe Sigeman & Co Chess Tournament 2024 saw her gain some rating points, which she unfortunately lost in the Dubai Police Global Chess Challenge Masters. A win for Ju in Norway Chess 2024, however, saw her gain some of that rating back — note, though, that the rating change in the tournament also includes Armageddon games. Ju finished off the year with an acceptable performance at the 2024 London Chess Classic, also winning the FIDE Women's World Blitz Championship at the tail end of 2024.

Meanwhile, after GM Tan Zhongyi's dominant performance at the FIDE Candidates 2024, she did not play in too many classical events. She won the Belt and Road Open 2024, only losing one game there, and then participated in two Women's Grand Prix, finishing second and fourth, respectively.

With both Ju and Tan not having practiced as much, it remains to be seen if this focus on match preparation will pay off or see them suffer from the lack of practice.

Individual Matchup

GM Ju Wenjun and GM Tan Zhongyi have had a long history of games against each other, starting as early as 2009:

In classical games, they are tied 5 wins to 5, with 16 draws. Interspersed among those games was a Women's World Championship Match, where Ju won 5.5 to 4.5. As Tan said, in this match, she hopes to finish her revenge.

What do the Numbers Say?

Draw rates in Women's World Championships over the years

Throughout the history of the Women's World Championships, draw rates have increased significantly, especially in the earlier editions, but have been fairly stable since the 1970s.

Draw rates in Women's World Championships based on the rating difference between the players

Ju and Tan drew 50% of their games in their first match in 2018, and we can expect to see a similar draw rate this time. Their ratings are only 6 points apart.

Rating difference between winner and loser over the years, from the perspective of the winner

This will be one of the closest Women's World Championship Matches ever, according to the ratings. The lower green line symbolizes Tan, the upper green line Ju.

Probability of the final match score outcome

Unsurprisingly, our simulations working with the very close player ratings show that the most likely outcome is for the match to go to the tiebreaks, making Ju Wenjun – world's highest rated woman in rapid and reigning Women's World Blitz Champion – the slight favorite against Tan Zhongyi with 54.5%.

Player Predictions

GM Vishy Anand: "I would give a slight edge to Ju." (source)

GM Humpy Koneru: "I think it will be Ju again." (source)

GM Alexandra Kosteniuk: "My favorite would definitely be Ju Wenjun." (source)

IM Sara Khadem: "I still think Ju is the favorite." (source)

GM Harika Dronavalli: "It's hard to pick one, but right now I feel maybe Ju Wenjun." (source)

GM Nana Dzagnidze: "It's a tough question, but I suppose Ju has the better chances." (source)

GM Anna Muzychuk: "It's hard to say because both of the players are at approximately the same level. I think many people would consider Ju as the slight favorite, but I think it will be a tough match." (source)

GM Mariya Muzychuk: "Much will depend on the support, team, and psychological state. The one who will be more successful in these aspects will win." (source)

IM Bibisara Assaubayeva: "I think they have equal chances, it depends on in which shape they will be." (source)

GM Jiner Zhu: "I think they have equal chances." (source)

IM Stavroula Tsolakidou: "Everyone says that Ju Wenjun is the favorite and I guess so objectively, but I guess I'll root for Tan." (source)