[World Cup Breakdown] Part 7: Analyzing Sections 13 & 14

Hi everyone,
The 2025 FIDE World Cup is coming later this month and with the bracket released, I want to take a deep dive into the first-round matchups. This grueling knockout tournament is a direct qualifier for the Candidates, a spot will be given to the top 3 finishers, so it is the most important chess tournament left of 2025.

Link to part 1 (section 1 and 2): https://lichess.org/@/TPogacar99/blog/world-cup-breakdown-part-1-analyzing-sections-1--2/X38qVOyw
Link to part 2 (section 3 and 4): https://lichess.org/@/TPogacar99/blog/world-cup-breakdown-part-2-analyzing-sections-3--4/bDW4dG2L
link to part 3 (section 5 and 6): https://lichess.org/@/TPogacar99/blog/world-cup-breakdown-part-3-analyzing-sections-5--6/vWpBKS8y
link to part 4 (section 7 and 8): https://lichess.org/@/TPogacar99/blog/world-cup-breakdown-part-4-analyzing-sections-7--8/RLvOmgvD
link to part 5 (section 9 and 10): https://lichess.org/@/TPogacar99/blog/world-cup-breakdown-part-5-analyzing-sections-9--10/nPjoQRnq
link to part 6 (section 11 and 12): https://lichess.org/@/TPogacar99/blog/world-cup-breakdown-part-6-analyzing-sections-11--12/TedPUwNp

In this seventh and penultimate part of our series, we're looking at Sections 13 and 14. Let's break this
down!
Section 13: Can Wei Yi make it to the Candidates?
This section is headlined by #7 seed GM Wei Yi, also featuring seed #26 GM Parham Maghsoodloo.

• Kacper Piorun vs Sergei Lobanov

Analysis: Section 13 starts with quite a balanced matchup, between two 2500+ players. Piorun is a 34-year-old GM from Poland, with a peak rating close to 2700 in his prime years, but he is also a six-time Chess-solving world champion; in the 2021 World Cup, Piorun had a great run, reaching the fifth round, where he lost in the tiebreaks to GM Etienne Bacrot, after defeating Jorden Van Foreest and a young Sindarov, among others.
Ever since then, Piorun has quite struggled in classical chess, dropping from 2650 to 2550, including the last tournament that he played, in Fujairah, where he scored only 2,5/8. Piorun is also a two-time National Champion, winning the title in 2017 and 2020, and has played in the Olympiad since 2016; in 2018, the year Poland finished fourth, Piorun went undefeated against multiple 2700+ players and remarkably defeated Hikaru Nakamura, helping his team beat the stacked US team.
Sergei Lobanov is not very well known outside of Russia, but he has been quite active in high level tournaments in 2025. The first time I've watched this 24-year-old GM play was at the Aeroflot Open, where he scored an impressive 6,5/9 and tied for 2nd place with many top players. He then embarked on a solid couple of months run, including a 6/9 performance at the Asian Championships, where he also defeated top seed Nihal Sarin. After that stretch, Lobanov has looked less impressive in recent open tournaments between Kazakhstan and China, but it has to be said that many young players who are found in those events tend to play above their rating.
Earlier this month, Lobanov played in the Russian Superfinal for the first time, but he struggled and finished last with a -6 score and a single win, against Ivan Zemlyanskii.
The winner will play Wei Yi, so it will be quite an obstacle to reach the third round for both.
Prediction: Piorun has the higher peak and has more experience at this level, Lobanov wasn't a very household name even in Russian chess before this year, but he has shown he can play at a level at least close to 2600 at times. Piorun 55-45

• Bassem Amin vs Farai Mandizha

Analysis: Bassem Amin has been the best player from the African Continent for the past decade plus and, as many of you probably know, he's also a medical doctor, the only one with a peak above 2700; indeed, Bassem crossed the so-called super GM barrier in 2017, at the age of 29, after winning the Abu Dhabi Masters open. His best period was in the second half of 2018, though, rebounding from 2670 to his peak of 2712 at the end of December.
After crossing 2700 once again in late 2021, Bassem has stabilised himself in the 2660-2630 range, on the edge of the top 100, but he is still quite active between league games, some open tournaments and major FIDE events. To give an example of his dominance over African Chess, he's won the Continental title 7 times in his career, 2024 being the latest of his victories.
Bassem's opponent is also from the African continent, 40-year-old IM from Zimbabwe Farai Mandizha. Mandizha, who has two GM norms by the way, has been coaching in the US for years and he also lives there, so he has not been playing much, he has no events so far this year. Last year, instead, he was more active, mostly in New York tournaments but also in the Chess Olympiad, where he scored 4,5/9 on first board ( he made a draw with Arturs Neiksans and beat Bojan Maksimovic in Budapest).
Mandizha is now rated below 2400, but he can actually play at GM level when he is on form, he is not a pushover.
Prediction: Bassem is the heavy favorite in this all-African matchup, Mandizha could make a draw with white but it's difficult to imagine more than that. Bassem 80-20

• Benjamin Gledura vs Zoubaier Amdouni

Analysis: Gledura has been touted for a while as the next potential 2700+ player from Hungary, crossing the 2600 mark for the first time at the age of 18. In 2019, he played in the Wijk Aan Zee Challengers section, tying for 2nd place, 2 points behind the winner Vladislav Kovalev (I talked about him in the previous installment) and only losing the one game against him; after another solid campaign in the European Individual Championship, Benjamin reached a new peak rating of 2654.
Back then, it seemed like he would continue to progress and make a push towards 2700, but after a 1/6 performance in the European Team Championship and the pandemic affecting OTB chess in 2020, he stagnated. It wouldn't be until January 2025 that Gledura would surpass his 2019 peak rating, after defeating GM Sanan Sjugirov in the Hungarian Super League.
After an 8/11 showing at the European Championship this year, he has somewhat struggled, finishing in last place at the Stepan Avagyan Memorial in Jermuk with 2,5/9 and deciding to skip the FIDE Grand Swiss.
Amdouni has been selected by the chess federation of Tunisia to play at the World Cup, despite being only being the #9 in the country. In the African Championship Amdouni scored 4/9 against an average opposition of 2051, losing 50 rating points and dropping below 2200. His rating chart is full of swings, with his rating oscillating between 2200 and 2300. In December 2014 he won the national title and a sub2300 Tournament in Benidorm, Spain, reaching his peak rating of 2365, but he wasn't able to keep that level for long and went under 2300 before the end of 2015.
Prediction: Gledura should be comfortable. Gledura 95-5

• Bardiya Daneshvar vs Pablo Salinas Herrera

Analysis: The Young Iranian Daneshvar caused a huge upset in the previous FIDE World Cup, defeating Alexander Grischuk in the second round in the blitz tiebreaks, ultimately being knocked out by Salem Saleh. Daneshvar, who is now 19 years old, has been making steady progress since covid, crossing 2500 in 2022 and becoming a GM in 2023; in that same year, he had his first big result, winning the Lozovatskij Memorial ahead of several russian grandmasters rated 2500+, then proceeded to finish second at the Asian Continental Championship and won the Aktobe Open in Kazakhstan. He also began competing for the National team and was part of the squad who won the Asian Games in 2023 ahead of superpowers like India, China and Uzbekistan.
In 2024, Daneshvar was the unexpected winner of the strongest open tournament of the year, Sharjah Masters, scoring 6,5/9 against 2680 avg opposition, with big wins against Sindarov, Aravindh and Esipenko. This year, he became Asian Champion with 7/9, reaching a new peak of 2640 and entering the top 100 for the first time, but has struggled in the Turkish League, causing him to briefly dip below 2600. He is clearly a talented player with lots of potential, I'm confident he can become a perennial top 100 player and maybe even more.
Pablo Salinas Herrera is a 31-year-old GM from Chile, the #2 rated player from his country at the moment. Salinas became a Grandmaster in 2019, finally crossing 2500 after he had crossed 2400 five years prior, and did it after drawing GM Ruben Felgaer from Argentina in the Chilean League. In 2019, he also finished second in the national Championship.
Salinas was able to stay above 2500 for 3 years, although he stopped competing during the pandemic for more than one year, reaching his peak of 2532 in 2022.
Last year he finished half a point behind first in the Arad Grand Prix in Romania, in which he also defeated top GM from Romania Bogdan-Daniel Deac, but also lost 30 points in the Abu Dhabi Masters; in the 2024 Olympiad he scored 6/10 on board 2, scoring unexpected wins against GMs Mads Andersen and Peter Prohaszka rated 2598 and 2542 respectively.
Thanks to this performance and also because the top player from Chile, Henriquez Villagra, had already qualified, he received a nomination from the federation.
Prediction: Herrera is a GM and, even though his rating is below 2500, he can still play at a high level as he proved in the Olympiad, so Daneshvar has to be cautious, but he is the firm favorite. Daneshvar 65-35

• Alexander Motylev vs Santiago Avila Pavas

Analysis: Alexander Motylev is quite underrated in my opinion, he is a very accomplished player on his own but also a great coach, working with the likes of Kramnik, Karjakin, Svidler, Judit and Alexandra Kosteniuk. As a player, he is a former 2700+ rated and former Russian champion in 2001, but he also shared 1st with Magnus at the Corus B group in 2006 and won the European Individual Championship with a stunning 9/11 in 2014. Since 2023, he has switched his federation to Romania, where he is also working as technical director in the federation, but he keeps working as a coach, the latest addition to his "resume" being young american GM Andy Woodward.
Despite his current occupation as a coach and technical director, he remains quite an active player at the age of 46, and he qualified to the World Cup thanks to an 8/11 performance in the 2024 European Individual Championship (shared 3rd place in a strong field). Motylev's strength is also still there, although not at his prime value, proved by his solid performances in leagues and opens, his opening preparation is undoubtedly one of his strongest characteristics because of his vast experience and his 20+ years of working with top players.
Santiago Avila is another young Colombian GM, who has been selected by his federation to represent the country in this World Cup (I talked already about 2 of the 4 Colombians in previous episodes). Avila, who is now 21, made his first big jump in 2019, going from 2295 to 2411, in the span of two months and became an International Master, then, after the shutdown during covid, he picked it up again and began his push towards the GM title; in 2021, he gained points in every single event played, crushing the competition in domestic events as well as other Latin American events. He played twice in the Olympiad for Colombia: 6/9 in 2022 and a majestic 9/11 last time around,where he played against an average of 2330 opponents, making draws against 2600+ Tamir Nabaty and Aryan Tari.
Santiago hasn't been too active this year, his last tournament being the American Continental Championship in June, where he tied for 1st but missed out on direct World Cup qualification due to tiebreaks.
Prediction: It's a nice clash of generations, Motylev is still strong but he has played more cautiously in recent Years, while Santiago Avila is a talented South american youngster who hasn't gotten many opportunities to test himself outside of the Americas, I think this can go long inside the tiebreaks portion. Motylev 55-45
.
Section 14: How far can Hans go?
This section features seed #10 GM Hans Niemann and the #23 seed Sam Sevian. Interestingly enough, Sevian defeated Hans in their encounter at the US Championship yesterday.

• Tin Jingyao vs Jegor Lashkin

Analysis: 25-year-old GM Tin Jingyao, from Singapore, caused one of the biggest shocks in the previous World Cup, when he knocked out Shakhryar Mamedyarov in round 2 in classical. He's been the best player from Singapore for a while, keeping his rating above 2560 for the past three years. His first big win came at the Hanoi GM Tournament in May 2022, where he destroyed the field with 8/9, 2,5 points ahead of second, then he finished second on tiebreaks at the Ellobregat Open in 2022 behind Amin Tabatabaei, ahead of players such as Niemann, Yu Yangyi, Vallejo, Fedoseev and Alekseenko. Playing on board one at the 2022 and 2024 Olympiads, he finished both with 7,5/10 and only lost two games in total.
This year he's had some highs, like a 9/9 in the national Championship, and some lows, like at the Asian Championship where he started with 0/2 against a 2400 (Manon, talked about him as well) and a 2200 player. All in all, it Always feels like he could be a perennial 2600 player but there's still some issue with his consistency.
Jegor Lashkin has been selected by Moldova, maybe surprisingly, but Victor Bologan is semi-retired and Ivan Schitco has had a rough year and a half; on the other hand,Lashkin has looked like the most in form player from Moldova recently, so the selection is fair.
The small european country punched way above their weight at the 2022 Chennai Olympiad, finishing in the top 10, but Lashkin wasn't in the team yet at the time, however right after that Olympiad he became the national champion in 2023 winning 8 games and drawing one, beating members of that team to the title. 2024 was another year of constant progress for the 22-year-old IM, winning the Brasov Classic in Romania shared with Max Warmerdam and being selected for his 1st Olympiad in Budapest; in the latter he was the best performing player of the team, scoring 7,5/10 on board 4, only losing to Mamedyarov and defeating a strong player like Kirill Shevchenko in the final round.
Lashkin reached his peak rating of 2528 in April, and was granted the GM title in the last FIDE Council; last month he had a good performance in the Romanian League, where he is a regular, defeating Pranav, Pranav Anand and holding draws against Puranik and Karthik.
Prediction: Tin Jingyao is almost 90 points higher rated than Lashkin, but I feel like the Moldovan player is quite underrated, he's done pretty well against higher rated opponents and only really had one bad month in the past 2 years (he lost 30 points in August 2025). Tin Jingyao 55-45

• Evgeny Najer vs Fy Rakotomaharo

Analysis: Najer, who is now 48 years old, is, somewhat similarly to Motylev, an underrated player who was often overshadowed by the pool of great Russian players of the past 25 years, but he has never been rated below 2600 since 2003. He also worked as a coach for Russia's Women team and was a second of Gata Kamsky in the 2000s.
Najer had his best victories in the second half of the 2010s, winning the European Championship in 2015, the Aeroflot Open in 2016 and reaching his peak of 2707 in 2017. His most memorable game is probably the one in which he blew Vishy Anand off the board in the 2019 Grand Swiss in 30 moves, but I also remember him beating the most in-form version of Parham Maghsoodloo to date at the 2023 Grand Swiss. Nowadays, he is mostly active in domestic events, where he usually loses a bunch of rating to younger opponents, however he is still 2610 so quite a threat. At the recent Grand Swiss he scored -2, only winning one game against Indjic.
Rakotomaharo is the #1 player from Madagascar, by some 238 rating points over second place. He might also be the most consistent 2400 in history, he crossed the mark for the first time in 2015, at the age of 16, and he has never dropped below it, but also never gotten past 2500. He plays mostly around Europe, especially in France, where he lives and studied computer science, but also in the Schachbundesliga for Bad Mergentheim (they have just been relegated however). In the last Olympiad he went 6/9, with ups and downs, while in 2022 he had gone 7/9, reaching his peak of 2492.
At 26-years-old, he is no longer the prodigy who looked ready to become the first Grandmaster in the island's history, but he is consistent and still keeps his rating in the 2440-2450s, so a push towards the ultimate title is not out of the question for sure, though I think he only has one norm from the 2022 French Top 16.
Prediction: the Malagasy player will be tricky, but Najer is unquestionably the stronger player and way more accomplished, the only question is probably regarding his age, though that should be more of a factor in later rounds. Najer 65-35

• Michael Adams vs Abdullah Ahmed Alrehaili

Analysis: Michael Adams is a legend, one of the most accomplished European players of all time, his longevity is also crazy. Adams became a top player in the 90s, qualifying for the 1995 Candidates after winning the Groningen Interzonal and being knocked out by Anand in the semis. From 1996 to 2007 he either played the Candidates or the FIDE World Championship knockout format, reaching the final in the latter in 1997 (lost to Vishy in sudden Death) and 2004, losing somewhat unexpectedly against Uzbek GM Rustam Kasimdzhanov.
During that period, which can be considered his prime, he was a consistent top 10 player and rated above 2700 when those were only a few top guys. Adams had one of his best years in 2013, dominating the Dortmund Sparkassen super Tournament with 7/9 and a 2900+ TPR, finishing second in the Bilbao Grand Slam and reaching his all time best rating of 2761.
In recent years, he has kept playing for the national team and in some Senior tournaments, where he is by far the strongest player, but he also won the London Chess Classic as recently as 2023, ahead of much younger players like Gukesh and Hans Niemann.
He's shown his age only recently, bleeding points at the Rubinstein Memorial and the European Team Championship, but he is still a top 100 player at the age of 53.
Alrehaili is the player chosen by the Saudi federation, a FIDE Master rated 2110 who is currently the highest rated player in Saudi Arabia. Amazingly, he played his first rated Tournament in 2019 (at least according to his FIDE profile) at the age of 19, in Beirut. Alreahili was a hero in the last Olympiad, scoring 8,5/11 and causing a crazy upset against Australian GM Bobby Cheng in round 1, winning with white. In 2025 he has played few events and lost a lot of points against sub2000 players, dropping from 2189 to 2110, where he stands now.
Prediction: Adams will move on and face the winner of the next matchup. Adams 95-5

• Ivan Cheparinov vs Angel Cordoba Roa

Analysis: Ivan Cheparinov is a very well known name in the world of chess; the former long-time second of fellow Bulgarian Veselin Topalov, recently a second of Alireza Firouzja, is a former 2700+ player on his own, and he has played countless major tournaments, including Olympiads, FIDE Grand Swiss, Grand Prix and World Cup. Cheparinov's first "prime" was around 2007-2008, when he won the Sigeman Tournament in Malmo, tied for 1st at the European Championship and crossed 2700 for the first time at 22. After another short stint above 2700 in 2012, he matched his 2008 peaks in 2017-2018, in terms of rating, thanks to strong performances at Gibraltar (a Tournament he won in 2014), the European Championship and the Chinese League.
In 2018, he switched his allegiance to Georgia and played the Olympiad for them in Batumi, but he went back to Bulgaria in 2020 after just two years.
In 2021-2022 he had another good stretch, scoring 4,5/7 at the 2021 Catalan Honor Division against 2674 avg opp, tying for 1st place at the 2021 Sunway Sitges tournament, tying for 2nd at the European Championship in 2022 and reaching 2694, close to 2700 once again.
Recently, alongside his work with Alireza, he has dropped to his worst rating since 2005, 2625, which says a lot about his strength.
Angel Cordoba got into this tournament quite uniquely, by winning a subzonal tournament in Medellin, his hometown, this April. The 19-year-old Colombian, who got the IM title this year, studies Business but he is quickly climbing towards the top 5 in his country (he's #9 as of now), gaining more than 400 points since covid; as a matter of fact, in the subzonal that he won, he defeated Santiago Avila and drew Roberto Garcia Pantoja, both 2500+ GMs. To my knowledge, he hasn't played any event outside of the Americas (barring an open in Spain a while ago), so this event will be the biggest tournament of his life so far without a doubt.
If he gets past Cheparinov, he will cross 2400 for the first time too.
Prediction: I think it's fair to say that Cheparinov will make his experience and positional understanding matter against his young inexperienced opponent, who can hope for a draw in classical in the best scenario. Cheparinov 70-30

• Lorenzo Lodici vs Read Samadov

Analysis: As an Italian myself, Lodici's performance in the last Olympiad is one of the brightest moments in our chess history, at least recently, together with Vocaturo's run at the 2023 World Cup. Lorenzo, who works part time in the Netherlands, scored huge wins against Anish Giri and Peter Leko, drew against Michael Adams and Aryan Tari and performed overall at 2700 level, by far the best performer on our team. In December 2024, he also scored another win against a super GM, Parham in Qatar Masters.
He started the year with a rating of 2574, but so far he hasn't been able to perform consistently and push towards 2600, a territory that is exclusive to a handful of italian players. In his last tournaments he has looked on form, tying for first place at Spilimbergo and a round robin event in Amsterdam.
It's important to note that Lodici, despite being somewhat inconsistent in his play, has a quite a good resume against players rated above 2600, precisely he is +7-12=27 against them since he became a GM, with a draw against Keymer and two draws against Pragg as some of the more notable ones besides the wins I already mentioned above.
Samadov, who already defeated Lodici at this year's European Championship, is one of the brightest talents in Azerbaijan, an 18-year-old IM rated 2523 right now. Samadov is a prodigy, he was already rated 2200+ at 12, 2300+ at 13 and he would most likely already have the GM title if it wasn't for covid stunting his gains for more than a year. I saw him play for the first time at the European Club Cup in 2023, fighting to draws against top players like Fedoseev and David Anton as a relatively unknown 16 year-old.
This year, he managed to qualify for the World Cup after tying for fourth at the European Individual Championship with 8/11, beating players like Bjerre and Ivanchuk. Samadov is now a stable 2500+ guy and he is constantly improving, I'm quite impressed by his level whenever he plays, he will be 2600 for sure at least. He also played some good blitz games in New York last year and at the FIDE World Rapid and Blitz teams in London this year.
Prediction: I'm of course rooting for our guy Lorenzo Lodici, however I'd be ok also with Samadov winning this because I like him as a player and he is very talented. The winner faces Hans, so I expect fireworks in round two whatever the result is gonna be in this matchup. 50-50
What do you guys think? Which of these first-round matches are you most excited about? Any upsets you're calling in Sections 13 or 14?
Let me know if you agree with my predictions and feel free to comment with your own takes.
Thanks everybody for reading, I will see you again for the final part!