So far in the men's candidates tournament 2026, Javokhir Sindarov has been absolutely dominating the tournament (as everyone probably knows already), and has shocked the chess world. But given Sindarov's relatively lower FIDE rating than other giants (Sindarov isn't even top 10), and how much hype players like Hikaru and Caruana got, how is it so that Sindarov is probably the clear winner now? Please share your thoughts about the ongoing candidates situation, and why Sindarov has been doing exceptionally recently.
Sindarov is clearly underrated and Nakamura clearly overrated.
He is #11 in rating, but going up
https://ratings.fide.com/profile/14205483/chart
He is also young, with plenty of fighting spirit, especially as black, and stamina.
As an outsider he probably got less attention in the preparation of others than the rating favorites Nakamura or Caruana.
In every top level tournament, someone will be in top form and it happens to be Sindarov in Cyprus. He's won five games because:
1. Opponent self destructed
This applies to Esipenko and Wei Yi who had good positions but went astray. Their king became unsafe and they did not defend well in time pressure.
2. Opponent over ambitious
Praggnanandhaa, Caruana and Nakamura all played the opening sharply and committed themselves to an unbalanced and complex middlegame. The risks did not pay off and Sindarov's preparation was deeper.
Clearly, Sindarov excels in dynamic positions and he plays relatively fast, trusting his calculating ability. Rating is not a good indicator of success in Candidates - you have to go back to 2013 and Carlsen for the top seed to win. Plus rating is not very accurate for a young player who is improving rapidly.
He had really good prep. He put pressure on his opponents on the clock - the no increment until move 40 was decisive in 3 games. And he's young and talented. He crushed Nepo (3x Candidate) in Uzchess earlier last year.
Chess is no different from any other sport in that any given day an all star type can make the MVPs look bad.
When I was 12, I won a tennis tournament at camp despite being fat, sucking, and having a headache. It was my day. 43 years go, but still.
Sinadorov is in good form from winning the World Cup and probably prepared a lot for that event which spilled over into his prep for the Candidates
How? Isn't that obvious?
Caruana, the other favorite, performance was very bad.
He got gifted an easy win against Bluebaum, a very easy win against Wei Yi and half a point against Nakamura in the first game after he botched a winning postion and he still can't keep up with the leader.
Nakamarua was never a favorite, only for the uninformed maybe. He was overrated in classical chess.
Youth, Stamina, Creativity, Knowledge
He's not afraid to make the best move
JAVOKHIR SINDAROV has to lose!
PRAGGNANDHAA must win the CANDIDATES!!