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Your best Anti-Sicilian depends on your ELO. 6.6M games show how.

"The Smith-Morra wins below 1400 because Black declines."

  • declining the Smith-Morra 1 e4 c5 2 d4 cxd4 3 c3 with either 3...d5 or 3...Nf6 transposes to the Alapin.

"The Alapin wins above 1600 because Black doesn't know 2...d5."

  • 2...d5 or 2...Nf6 are both good replies to 1 e4 c5 2 c3.
"The Smith-Morra wins below 1400 because Black declines." * declining the Smith-Morra 1 e4 c5 2 d4 cxd4 3 c3 with either 3...d5 or 3...Nf6 transposes to the Alapin. "The Alapin wins above 1600 because Black doesn't know 2...d5." * 2...d5 or 2...Nf6 are both good replies to 1 e4 c5 2 c3.

Both fair! You're right on the 3.c3 d5/Nf6 => Alapin transposition (my "decline" framing was loose), and on 2...Nf6 being equally solid against the Alapin.

The data anchor stands though: at 1600-2000, Black still plays 2...Nc6 most often (24%, W 52%), good replies exist, most strong players don't play them.

Thanks for sharpening.

Both fair! You're right on the 3.c3 d5/Nf6 => Alapin transposition (my "decline" framing was loose), and on 2...Nf6 being equally solid against the Alapin. The data anchor stands though: at 1600-2000, Black still plays 2...Nc6 most often (24%, W 52%), good replies exist, most strong players don't play them. Thanks for sharpening.

I play 2. g3 and get positions that I enjoy. White needs to be ready for 2. .. d5, and all other black responses go into similar maneuvering games.

I play 2. g3 and get positions that I enjoy. White needs to be ready for 2. .. d5, and all other black responses go into similar maneuvering games.

I play 2. a3.

It is SO fun.

Also after Nc6, the b4 ideas are crazy

I play 2. a3. It is SO fun. Also after Nc6, the b4 ideas are crazy

You forgot the Mengarini's and Wing Gambits existed lol

Anyways, cool stats! I personally play the Alapin, but I have to say, I feel like most players at my level do know that 2...d5 exists. I also know the lines so that's not a big issue, but there are a few weird statements in the blog.

Overall though, these are some cool stats!

You forgot the Mengarini's and Wing Gambits existed lol Anyways, cool stats! I personally play the Alapin, but I have to say, I feel like most players at my level do know that 2...d5 exists. I also know the lines so that's not a big issue, but there are a few weird statements in the blog. Overall though, these are some cool stats!

@MyChessPosters said ^

Both fair! You're right on the 3.c3 d5/Nf6 => Alapin transposition (my "decline" framing was loose), and on 2...Nf6 being equally solid against the Alapin.

The data anchor stands though: at 1600-2000, Black still plays 2...Nc6 most often (24%, W 52%), good replies exist, most strong players don't play them.

Thanks for sharpening.

Also, 2...Nc6 very often transposes to the 2...d5 lines.

@MyChessPosters said [^](/forum/redirect/post/HV8tAPre) > Both fair! You're right on the 3.c3 d5/Nf6 => Alapin transposition (my "decline" framing was loose), and on 2...Nf6 being equally solid against the Alapin. > > The data anchor stands though: at 1600-2000, Black still plays 2...Nc6 most often (24%, W 52%), good replies exist, most strong players don't play them. > > Thanks for sharpening. Also, 2...Nc6 very often transposes to the 2...d5 lines.

Just going to add that I think a bit of the theory needs to be revised.

Firstly for the Smith-Morra gambit what you defined as accepting it (2...cxd4) isn't when it's accepted. Instead it's after 1.e4 c5 2.d4 cxd4 3.c3 dxcx3 that it's accepted. The point being that after 3.c3 black can decline the Smith-Morra with 3...Nf6 that transposes into an Alapin.

Secondly a lot of Sicilian lines have quite a bit of transpositional possibilities. For example the Grand Prix attack used to be played with 1.e4 c5 2.f4 move order that you've called McDowell. However in that line 2...d5 was viewed as strong so instead now move order is 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 where if black plays 2...d6 then 3.f4 is played, otherwise white will often play 3.Nf3 and 4.d4 transposing to an open Sicilian.

If wanting more meaningful results the key positions in most of white's lines occur after 6 to 9 moves rather than move 2. For example if you play the Najdorf then key positions arise with white's plans of things like 6.Bg5, 6.Be3, 6.Be2, 6.f4 etc since that reflects white's attacking posture in various lines.

Just going to add that I think a bit of the theory needs to be revised. Firstly for the Smith-Morra gambit what you defined as accepting it (2...cxd4) isn't when it's accepted. Instead it's after 1.e4 c5 2.d4 cxd4 3.c3 dxcx3 that it's accepted. The point being that after 3.c3 black can decline the Smith-Morra with 3...Nf6 that transposes into an Alapin. Secondly a lot of Sicilian lines have quite a bit of transpositional possibilities. For example the Grand Prix attack used to be played with 1.e4 c5 2.f4 move order that you've called McDowell. However in that line 2...d5 was viewed as strong so instead now move order is 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 where if black plays 2...d6 then 3.f4 is played, otherwise white will often play 3.Nf3 and 4.d4 transposing to an open Sicilian. If wanting more meaningful results the key positions in most of white's lines occur after 6 to 9 moves rather than move 2. For example if you play the Najdorf then key positions arise with white's plans of things like 6.Bg5, 6.Be3, 6.Be2, 6.f4 etc since that reflects white's attacking posture in various lines.
  1. Be2 is worth considering. It's a variation of the Grand Prix attack.
2. Be2 is worth considering. It's a variation of the Grand Prix attack.

@jay_jp_scott said ^

I play 2. g3 and get positions that I enjoy. White needs to be ready for 2. .. d5, and all other black responses go into similar maneuvering games.

Pulled the data — 2.g3 sits below 0.1% popularity in the sample (well under my floor, which is why it slipped past me) and White's overall win rate is only 48%, slightly below the Sicilian average. So unlike the Alapin, this isn't a popularity-vs-results gap — it's just rare and slightly underperforming.
Your 2...d5 prep instinct holds up in the data: it scores 54% Black / 40% White, the worst result for White against any Black reply to 2.g3. The line survives practically because only 5% of Black players actually find it — but at the board, you're absolutely right that's the move to be ready for.

@jay_jp_scott said [^](/forum/redirect/post/doWm8IoB) > I play 2. g3 and get positions that I enjoy. White needs to be ready for 2. .. d5, and all other black responses go into similar maneuvering games. Pulled the data — 2.g3 sits below 0.1% popularity in the sample (well under my floor, which is why it slipped past me) and White's overall win rate is only 48%, slightly below the Sicilian average. So unlike the Alapin, this isn't a popularity-vs-results gap — it's just rare and slightly underperforming. Your 2...d5 prep instinct holds up in the data: it scores 54% Black / 40% White, the worst result for White against any Black reply to 2.g3. The line survives practically because only 5% of Black players actually find it — but at the board, you're absolutely right that's the move to be ready for.