lichess.org
Donate

What changed in Ding's play?

Winning might not be that good for you in the end. How did you decide or got curious about choosing those 3 time points (or bins). Not more. I know 3 is the beginning of a crowd, but is there more than that?

Winning might not be that good for you in the end. How did you decide or got curious about choosing those 3 time points (or bins). Not more. I know 3 is the beginning of a crowd, but is there more than that?

you know whats worse than dings drop...

taxes.

you know whats worse than dings drop... taxes.

@dboing said in #2:
I didn't want to go too far back with the games since they lose relevancy for the current situation.
I decided to add the separation at the COVID break since Ding had to cancel many top tournaments in that time period and I thought that his play might have started to drop back then already. It turned out that the quality of his play was still good, although the average rating of his opponents was much lower because he played more events in China.

@dboing said in #2: I didn't want to go too far back with the games since they lose relevancy for the current situation. I decided to add the separation at the COVID break since Ding had to cancel many top tournaments in that time period and I thought that his play might have started to drop back then already. It turned out that the quality of his play was still good, although the average rating of his opponents was much lower because he played more events in China.

Great analysis. From live events I have watched Ding in, my highly unscientific, gut feeling, has been is that he [comparatively] lacks stamina.
You say the number of "big mistakes" has significantly increased. Perhaps one interesting number to look at would be: "at what point (move number) did the big mistakes occur?"

My wild guess: after move 40, but earlier than the few big mistakes before the WCC clash.

Great analysis. From live events I have watched Ding in, my highly unscientific, gut feeling, has been is that he [comparatively] lacks stamina. You say the number of "big mistakes" has significantly increased. Perhaps one interesting number to look at would be: "at what point (move number) did the big mistakes occur?" My wild guess: after move 40, but earlier than the few big mistakes before the WCC clash.
<Comment deleted by user>

This was an interesting read. Thanks, Julian, for keeping it simple enough for us to understand. Chess is a three result game and it's so refreshing seeing that being acknowledged in your articles, instead of just chasing the eval score.

I'm curious about your way of calculating inaccuracies, mistakes, and blunders though. Is a drop in win percentage always a bad thing? What if you change a sharp but equal position into a dead draw? Sometimes that's the best thing to do.

What happened to Ding? My guess would be that Ding, like many top chess players, is simply gradually losing his edge with age. This could be further explored with a more precise analysis, using more bins as suggested by @dboing. Additionally, it would be interesting to compare Ding's international games to the ones he played in China. For example, in order to qualify for the 2022 Candidates, he played several tournaments in China organized for that purpose. Maybe his results there are not a good measure of his chess strength in an international field. Filtering out those games might uncover a clearer trend.

Keep up the good work!

This was an interesting read. Thanks, Julian, for keeping it simple enough for us to understand. Chess is a three result game and it's so refreshing seeing that being acknowledged in your articles, instead of just chasing the eval score. I'm curious about your way of calculating inaccuracies, mistakes, and blunders though. Is a drop in win percentage always a bad thing? What if you change a sharp but equal position into a dead draw? Sometimes that's the best thing to do. What happened to Ding? My guess would be that Ding, like many top chess players, is simply gradually losing his edge with age. This could be further explored with a more precise analysis, using more bins as suggested by @dboing. Additionally, it would be interesting to compare Ding's international games to the ones he played in China. For example, in order to qualify for the 2022 Candidates, he played several tournaments in China organized for that purpose. Maybe his results there are not a good measure of his chess strength in an international field. Filtering out those games might uncover a clearer trend. Keep up the good work!

Beyond a certain point which is getting lower and lower anyone can have a perfect game so we can rather speak of form than strength. Since The Crown will be at stake at there is more incentive and his form will increase dramatically although Gukesh of course ps also remarkable

Beyond a certain point which is getting lower and lower anyone can have a perfect game so we can rather speak of form than strength. Since The Crown will be at stake at there is more incentive and his form will increase dramatically although Gukesh of course ps also remarkable

Very detailed and interesting analysis of Ding's recent play, thank you.

Very detailed and interesting analysis of Ding's recent play, thank you.