Referring back to the Blitz games I played on chessdotcom - approx. 2000+ games. I independently and objectively measured the 'quality of the game' played in ECO rating terms, this took a very long time - I was very puzzled as to why I hadn't improved one iota over a 2-3 years period. What I discovered was a surprise.
Fitting the game data into a frequency v rating chart, instead of an expected mighty peak at my chessdotcom rating what I got was a gently rolling hill roughly peaking at my game rating +/- 100. The extremes were about 20 games rated 2800+ and roughly the same number 1000-.
My conclusion (in this context) - based on a sample of one - was that at my level, roughly 1300 to 1600 (~1450 classical OTB), people play with a very high level of game quality variance, such that a single game can never be utilised as an indicator of cheating.
Of course I would expect the higher your level, considerably less variance would be displayed and consequently the easier - fewer number of games required - to detect cheating using statistical techniques.
Note the analysis ignored game results, a very different way of looking at things.
Another interesting effect - albeit a bit more dodgy, as sample sizes were heavily biased toward Blitz - was that the longer the duration of the game the tighter was the variance and the more to the right the peak occurred. Effect was not strong but was expected. There was also little difference between playing White or Black - maybe +50 for the former.
All of this analysis has lead me to mainly play a board range of old chess computers nowadays - even less variance and more shifting to the right! - the thinking being that the higher the quality of games played the more likely the improvement for the time spent. Jury is still out on this experiment but I will give it a year - it's not the only change I have made.
Referring back to the Blitz games I played on chessdotcom - approx. 2000+ games. I independently and objectively measured the 'quality of the game' played in ECO rating terms, this took a very long time - I was very puzzled as to why I hadn't improved one iota over a 2-3 years period. What I discovered was a surprise.
Fitting the game data into a frequency v rating chart, instead of an expected mighty peak at my chessdotcom rating what I got was a gently rolling hill roughly peaking at my game rating +/- 100. The extremes were about 20 games rated 2800+ and roughly the same number 1000-.
My conclusion (in this context) - based on a sample of one - was that at my level, roughly 1300 to 1600 (~1450 classical OTB), people play with a very high level of game quality variance, such that a single game can never be utilised as an indicator of cheating.
Of course I would expect the higher your level, considerably less variance would be displayed and consequently the easier - fewer number of games required - to detect cheating using statistical techniques.
Note the analysis ignored game results, a very different way of looking at things.
Another interesting effect - albeit a bit more dodgy, as sample sizes were heavily biased toward Blitz - was that the longer the duration of the game the tighter was the variance and the more to the right the peak occurred. Effect was not strong but was expected. There was also little difference between playing White or Black - maybe +50 for the former.
All of this analysis has lead me to mainly play a board range of old chess computers nowadays - even less variance and more shifting to the right! - the thinking being that the higher the quality of games played the more likely the improvement for the time spent. Jury is still out on this experiment but I will give it a year - it's not the only change I have made.