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Why chess ratings don't mean what they used to

If in theory there is a gab between countries. Shouldnt there be also differents in the same country and in different states of that country?

If in theory there is a gab between countries. Shouldnt there be also differents in the same country and in different states of that country?

Theoretically.

Also, is there any update? It's been a while since this article, and the associated book, was published; was there any impact on FIDE or did they not acknowledge the issue yet?

Theoretically. Also, is there any update? It's been a while since this article, and the associated book, was published; was there any impact on FIDE or did they not acknowledge the issue yet?

This is all very interesting, but rather theoretical. I'm sorry to say this, but you can create artificial pools ofc and then make comparisons. However, you can't necessarily draw conclusions from this that have any practical use (see below).

For example:

FIDE treats every federation as part of a single pool, but traveling players know that a 1900 in Germany is not a 1900 in India.

In Germany, the top four leagues have been dominated by international players for decades. Many of them also participate in open tournaments in Germany. However, the lower leagues and smaller tournaments were not rated by FIDE for years, as most players only paid attention to their national rating. The "traveling player" you mentioned is aware of this!

Furthermore, most German players pursue chess only as a hobby, even if they are CMs, FMs, or even IMs. Chess is not a promising source of income for a German citizen because the cost of living is too high. The "traveling player" you mentioned is aware of this!!

Now, a moderately strong player from country X might naturally think of moving to Germany and pursuing a chess career there. But then you'd be playing against Caruana (USA) on the first board in the top league and against Etienne Bacrot (FRA) on the last board. So, a career is rather difficult. The "traveling player" you mentioned is aware of this!!! :) Comparing yourself to the many "quite good" German players is pointless because they aren't competition from the outset and don't even want to be.

In theory, it's interesting to compare artificial player pools. However, I would strongly advise against drawing any practical conclusions from this.

This is all very interesting, but rather theoretical. I'm sorry to say this, but you can create artificial pools ofc and then make comparisons. However, you can't necessarily draw conclusions from this that have any practical use (see below). For example: > FIDE treats every federation as part of a single pool, but traveling players know that a 1900 in Germany is not a 1900 in India. In Germany, the top four leagues have been dominated by international players for decades. Many of them also participate in open tournaments in Germany. However, the lower leagues and smaller tournaments were not rated by FIDE for years, as most players only paid attention to their national rating. The "traveling player" you mentioned is aware of this! Furthermore, most German players pursue chess only as a hobby, even if they are CMs, FMs, or even IMs. Chess is not a promising source of income for a German citizen because the cost of living is too high. The "traveling player" you mentioned is aware of this!! Now, a moderately strong player from country X might naturally think of moving to Germany and pursuing a chess career there. But then you'd be playing against Caruana (USA) on the first board in the top league and against Etienne Bacrot (FRA) on the last board. So, a career is rather difficult. The "traveling player" you mentioned is aware of this!!! :) Comparing yourself to the many "quite good" German players is pointless because they aren't competition from the outset and don't even want to be. In theory, it's interesting to compare artificial player pools. However, I would strongly advise against drawing any practical conclusions from this.

@Panda_SLCA said ^

This blog is totally relatable. Great research and this is another reason that most players even who are Asian travel to Europe most of the time to play tournaments and go on tours even myself has many Asian friends like that... Overall great blob

When so many great players from all over Asia travel to tournaments in Europe, they will simply compete against each other. I've heard the same story in the USA, by the way. The proof always cited was the FIDE profile of a 75-year-old untitled european player who participated in a tournament in the USA (in holidays) and only achieved a mediocre result.

@Panda_SLCA said [^](/forum/redirect/post/zmyvKC9v) > This blog is totally relatable. Great research and this is another reason that most players even who are Asian travel to Europe most of the time to play tournaments and go on tours even myself has many Asian friends like that... Overall great blob When so many great players from all over Asia travel to tournaments in Europe, they will simply compete against each other. I've heard the same story in the USA, by the way. The proof always cited was the FIDE profile of a 75-year-old untitled european player who participated in a tournament in the USA (in holidays) and only achieved a mediocre result.

Very thought-provoking read. We all treat ratings as absolute truth, but this shows how context matters more than we like to admit.

Very thought-provoking read. We all treat ratings as absolute truth, but this shows how context matters more than we like to admit.

Wow this article was really interesting, thanks for sharing your ideas!

My one question is, you bring up all the problems arising with the FIDE rating system, so what's your idea on how to fix it?

Wow this article was really interesting, thanks for sharing your ideas! My one question is, you bring up all the problems arising with the FIDE rating system, so what's your idea on how to fix it?

@JNank said ^

Very interesting analysis. I might try to play some games in Spain, if I get the chance. Of course juniors remain rightfully feared.

I'm not sure I agree with the framing of the "deflation tax" as a problem that needs fixing. Geographical fragmentation is the problem. The deflation tax is the automatic solution by which the Elo system fixes these international discrepancies. When there is geographical fragmentation, overrated nations should bleed points to underrated nations. This is a feature, not a bug. As the initial shock of pandemic skill-gain fades, ratings will find a new equilibrium that accurately reflects player skill. This is a problem that solves itself.

Indeed, every single one of these analyses I've read is written from PoW of "the robbed". Future - and rightly so! - belongs to the youth.

@JNank said [^](/forum/redirect/post/sSpQYXym) > Very interesting analysis. I might try to play some games in Spain, if I get the chance. Of course juniors remain rightfully feared. > > I'm not sure I agree with the framing of the "deflation tax" as a problem that needs fixing. Geographical fragmentation is the problem. The deflation tax is the automatic solution by which the Elo system fixes these international discrepancies. When there is geographical fragmentation, overrated nations *should* bleed points to underrated nations. This is a feature, not a bug. As the initial shock of pandemic skill-gain fades, ratings will find a new equilibrium that accurately reflects player skill. This is a problem that solves itself. Indeed, every single one of these analyses I've read is written from PoW of "the robbed". Future - and rightly so! - belongs to the youth.

@JNank said ^

As the initial shock of pandemic skill-gain fades, ratings will find a new equilibrium that accurately reflects player skill. This is a problem that solves itself.

Fide has been making since the beginning changes to their ratingsystem. It is naive to think that we will soon get a new equilibrium and all problems will be solved. It is much more likely this will never happen.

@JNank said [^](/forum/redirect/post/sSpQYXym) >As the initial shock of pandemic skill-gain fades, ratings will find a new equilibrium that accurately reflects player skill. This is a problem that solves itself. Fide has been making since the beginning changes to their ratingsystem. It is naive to think that we will soon get a new equilibrium and all problems will be solved. It is much more likely this will never happen.

I don't know if this is a global solution, but at least can help a lot.

We cannot avoid some "elo islands" form, as OTB international tournaments are not as easy and available as playing online. But two simple measures that would help this problem:

  • We are not in 1970 anymore. No more "monthly ratings". We can switch to a live rating where your elo gets adjusted after every game. Those underrated 1500 winning 10 points per draw will be 1550 in the middle of the tournament, 1600 in the last rounds, limiting the damage and adjusting faster to their real rating.

  • Use Glicko-2 or a better algorithm that has a variable K factor depending on the accuracy of the rating. This will make some people not understanding exactly how many points they get per game (until they get use to it) but again, helps the rating to be faster to adjust.

I don't know if this is a global solution, but at least can help a lot. We cannot avoid some "elo islands" form, as OTB international tournaments are not as easy and available as playing online. But two simple measures that would help this problem: - We are not in 1970 anymore. No more "monthly ratings". We can switch to a live rating where your elo gets adjusted after every game. Those underrated 1500 winning 10 points per draw will be 1550 in the middle of the tournament, 1600 in the last rounds, limiting the damage and adjusting faster to their real rating. - Use Glicko-2 or a better algorithm that has a variable K factor depending on the accuracy of the rating. This will make some people not understanding exactly how many points they get per game (until they get use to it) but again, helps the rating to be faster to adjust.

@T-R-I-D-E-N-T said ^

Wow this article was really interesting, thanks for sharing your ideas!

My one question is, you bring up all the problems arising with the FIDE rating system, so what's your idea on how to fix it?

The full repair proposal for restoring the parity of the global Elo system is in the book! To summarize, I propose a one-time recalibration of the scaling factor in the Elo formula and specific interventions in 15 federations, based on activity bonuses for K=40 players.

@T-R-I-D-E-N-T said [^](/forum/redirect/post/Hpb54srE) > Wow this article was really interesting, thanks for sharing your ideas! > > My one question is, you bring up all the problems arising with the FIDE rating system, so what's your idea on how to fix it? The full repair proposal for restoring the parity of the global Elo system is in the book! To summarize, I propose a one-time recalibration of the scaling factor in the Elo formula and specific interventions in 15 federations, based on activity bonuses for K=40 players.