US midterms: which polls are sound?

@NeuralGnat said ^

Personally, I avoid political and religious threads. Life is too short to be wasting hours every day typing out long posts that never change anyone's mind. Especially since some of the p...

Then you should avoid conversation like

Metallica - Enter Sandman Moscow 1991
...

I thought it was a thread about Metallica. Isn't Metall...

OP’s opening post started with music freedom which started a political thing

@kipel73 said ^

Personally, I avoid political and religious threads. Life is too short to be wasting hours every day typing out long posts that never change anyone's mind. Especially since some of the p...

Then you should avoid conversation like

Metallica - Enter Sandman Moscow 1991
...

I thought it was a thread about Metallica...

Not even, I just liked the performance :)

There is one poll that is dependably sound -- the poll at which voting is actually done.

We have a great deal of experience with many polls being WAY off. Republicans tend not to respond. For those of you who have access to and have followed recent news, one poll was reportedly found to be just made up (giggle). Guess which party was greatly favored by that poll? Giggle. It's not hard to guess.

Trump may be "extremely unpopular" with a particular peer group or bubble.

But Trump's rallies have crowds waiting for 8 hours, sometimes, to get in. Over and over. Recently. With big crowds. Clearly seen in video. Nobody really has to guess.

So, it's best not to just see a tiny part of the world and think -- believe -- it is of universal significance.

Inflation is way down from what it was in the middle of Biden's term, by the way. But during Biden's term prices went way up, and prices tend NOT to ever come down. Although there are exceptions, like egg prices and oil. Oil prices have been higher in the past.

So, all this whining about prices by Democrats strikes me as quite ironic. There's nothing Democrats can really do to lower prices much -- indeed, if they could have done that, why didn't they when they had power?

"why didn't they when they had power?"

• Only Trump attacked Iran.

"There's nothing Democrats can really do to lower prices"

• Call back the US Navy from Iran.

When Democrats had power, Trump DIDN'T attack Iran. He wasn't in power. Inflation was high. Check it.

And the price of a destroyed city or two, or a world war, is MUCH higher than the price of a navy deployment.

Iran could easily stop the war by not attacking its neighbors. Giving up unnecessarily highly enriched Uranium. Stop trying to control international water ways. Allowing UN inspectors unrestricted access without playing games.

Yet some STILL try to "carry water" for Iran's government. Oh well. I can't know the motivations or nationality of all. But long live free expression.

Furthermore, Democrats in the past have taken actions that have driven UP gas prices. Many Democrats don't LIKE fossil fuels. And check gas prices in Democrat controlled California. They're very high. What part of this paragraph is incorrect? Please be specific.

Let's try not to kid ourselves. Democrat polices don't lower gas prices. To the contrary.

Memories are short. Democrats have shut down Congress even from the minority. More than once. Causing important government workers to go without pay for extended periods.

Trump secured the border and brought massive investment in the country and actually lowered taxes and inflation, even now. Check gas prices under Biden. Then wonder about the whining NOW.

Democrats also tend to favor raising taxes. That lowers the cost of living, does it? Democrats generally opposed Trump's many tax cuts that helped lower or middle income folks, like restaurant workers, overtime workers and seniors. Good grief.

Many mostly liberal universities have saddled their students with huge debt for tuition. How helpful.

Notice who controls the states where there seems to be a lot of waste and abuse of government funds. Seriously, stop and think and don't just nod along with some narrative.

Too many people get conned into nodding along with silly positions, as the result of peer pressure and often rather biased mentoring and media.

And no. I'm not a "bot." I'm just an educated, experienced adult. And this will be the most important election in many, many years, coming right up. Notice if the Left REALLY brings harmony and happiness. Is it conservatives and moderates who burn cities? Really?

Evidence from Trump rally attendance:

https://wltreport.com/2026/10/05/president-trump-nebraska-rally-lines-polls-missing-maga-intensity/

Then came Grand Island, Nebraska, where supporters formed one of the longest Trump rally lines seen in years. The scene offered a vivid reminder that rally crowds reveal political intensity even though they do not scientifically invalidate national polls.

https://www.1011now.com/2026/10/05/supporters-line-up-overnight-trump-rallies-republicans-grand-island-ahead-midterms/

I took a prominent example of a Trump rally attendance, according to pro-Trump media. The evidence I was able to fetch is rather unconvincing in terms of popularity. From the videos and images, I estimate two thousand attendees. Waiting in line for 8 hours is no evidence of massive support. It does however hint commitment.

Trump has a sizeable following in the US, and the republican hard core stands at roughly one third of the electorate. Therefore, a rally of two thousand people does not carry new information really, it just reinforces what is already known, that millions support Trump and will vote for the republican party. The question is, who will have a large enough share of the votes to gain control of the congress.

It would be interesting to see if including rally attendance figures would make forecasts more accurate. However, polls already make the distinction between the registered voter and the likely voter. A party may have a majority of preferences among registered voters, but still lose because its voters are not committed enough to actually vote.

Emojis aren't specific, articulate, factual refutations. Sure, they're much easier. Which explains a lot.

The Republican midterm rally was a large success that drew huge crowds -- especially when compared to the attendance greeting various Democrat candidates -- even those that don't campaign from their basements, so to speak.

It's fun to hear Democrats who voted against tax cuts for tips and tax cuts for overtime telling us they're "fer the workin' man." Yeah, sure. Voting against those tax cuts no doubt really helped "the workin' man." Giggle.

But some will nod along anyway. They wouldn't want to disappoint their friends or mentors or go against their favorite sources of news. Fashion too often trumps logic. That's "trumps" without a capital T.

I look forward to any resulting "argument by emoji."

"Iran could easily stop the war by not attacking its neighbors."

• Iran has not attacked any neighbor for centuries, but was attacked by the UK, the USSR, the USA, Iraq, the USA, Israel.

"Giving up unnecessarily highly enriched Uranium"

• Iran accepted limitations and inspections under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but Trump withdrew from it.

"Stop trying to control international water ways."

• The USA should stop trying to control international water ways, far away from the USA.

"Many Democrats don't LIKE fossil fuels."

• For good reason: droughts, floods, storms, wildfires, avalanches, landslides causing loss of life and property.

"Trump secured the border"

• A leader should build bridges and tear down walls, not build walls and bomb bridges.

"Iran has not attacked any neighbor for centuries,"

I suggest you watch more news. Notice which countries (plural) and which countries' merchant ships (plural) have been hit with missiles.

Furthermore, dependably and greatly funding, or providing weapons to, those who attack others is a slight distinction. There are many U.S. service men (and others) still living with injuries they've had for years now.

Such funding and provision will be harder now, though, eh? Revenue for such things is drying up fast. Trump isn't doing much bombing. He's quietly, surely, blockading.

Wouldn't it just be easier for Iran to do the reasonable things I mentioned above?

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Notice that attempted justifications for trying to shut down fossil fuels does NOT refute the point I made -- indeed, it confirms the point. Democrat policies tend to increase the price of gas -- which makes Dem complaints about high gas prices ironic, comical and obviously political. California is a very blue state. Does it have reasonable gas prices? Even before Trump? During Biden? I hope we all know the answer. I hope we THINK about the answer, and don't just clamor to find a distraction.

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Strong, caring leaders secure their own borders. Period. Opening uncontrolled borders leads to inflation, increased rents, burdened schools and hospitals, lowered wages (as workers stream in) and sometimes even flaming riots. Don't be fooled. We don't have to guess. We just have to notice.

Long live France and England. May they prosper and bring all troubles under control.